Published Date 5/12/2022

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: LOWER
Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -40 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: LOWER
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 203K vs. est. of 195K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average remained below 200k (192,750). Continuing Claims were lighter than expected, 1.343M vs. est. of 1.380M

Inflation: The Headline April Producer Price Index YOY was higher than expected, 11.0% vs. est. of 10.7%. Actually it was even higher as the prior month was revised upward from 11.2% to 11.5%. Core (ex food and energy) PPI YOY would appear to be lighter than expectations (8.8% vs. est. of 8.9%) but the prior month was revised upward from 9.2% all the way up to 9.6%!

Treasury Sales: We have a very important 30 year bond auction at 1 pm today.

The Fed: Today we hear from Mary Daly and get the Fed’s Balance Sheet.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH
This morning markets are trending better despite PPI data. Volatility is high and will remain choppy.

BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232