Published Date 8/18/2022
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -27 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Housing: July Existing Home Sales hit 4.81M units on an annualized basis vs. est. of 4.89M.
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected (250K vs. est. of 265K) and we saw a nice revision downward to the prior data. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped back below the important level of 250K (246,750). Continuing Claims were inline with estimates (1.437M vs. est. of 1.438M).
Manufacturing: The August Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was much better than expected, increasing by 6.2 s est. of -5.0 and a big improvement over July’s contraction of -12.3
The Fed: Today we hear from K.C. Fed President Esther George (voting member) and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (voting member). We also get their balance sheet in 4:30 and they will be purchasing $776M of 30Y Conventional MBS starting at 10 am.
TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: NEUTRAL
This morning markets are trending slightly better. Volatility has started at the higher end of moderate but will likely relax later into the day.
BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232
