Published Date 10/3/2022
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: LOWER
Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -44 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
THIS WEEK’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Jobs, 2) Geopolitical and 3) Domestic News
1) Jobs: It will be Big Jobs Friday with Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings but we also get a ton of job or wage related data every day this week with ISMs, ADP Payrolls, JOLTS, Challenger Job Cuts and Initial Jobless Claims.
2) Geopolitical: One of the primary movers in rates over the past two weeks was Great Britain and the market turmoil caused by the new administration taking an opposite path as the Bank of England… eventually causing the BofE to have to step in with emergency bond buying. We start this week off with the new PM dropping her new tax cuts for the wealthiest which is providing some stability in markets. We also have the growing concern of another “Lehman Event” with Credit Suisse and a potential Opec + oil output cut. We also get expected rate hikes out of Australia and New Zealand.
3) Domestic News: Front and Center will this week’s national ISMs. Last week’s regional Chicago PMI was a big miss to the downside. Will the national ISM Manufacturing or Services be the same?
THIS WEEK’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH
This morning markets are doing better. Volatility will be very high with lots of news and market pressures pushing rate markets around.
BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232
