Published Date 6/30/2022

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: LOWER
Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market improved by +38 bps yesterday. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high moderate volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Inflation: The May headline PCE rose by 0.6% vs. est. of 0.7% which is triple April’s pace of 0.2%. YOY it increased by 6.3% vs. est. of 6.5%. Core PCE (ex food and energy) which is used by the Federal Reserve as their “target” rate of 2% came in at 4.7% on a YOY basis vs. est. of 4.8%. MOM, it increased by 0.3% vs. est. of 0.4%

Income and Spending: Personal Incomes rose by 0.5% vs. matched forecasts but Personal Spending increased by only 0.2% vs. est. of 0.5%. On a year over year basis, incomes grew at 5.3% but spending rose at 8.5%

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 231K vs. est. of 228K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average moved upward to 231,750 which is the highest level in 5 years. Continuing Claims were 1.328M vs. est. of 1.310M

Manufacturing: June’s Chicago PMI showed solid expansion with a reading of 56 which was below estimates of 58 and is below May’s really hot reading of 60.3

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH
This morning markets are being pressured lower on recession fears. Volatility is high between rising Fed rates and money fleeing to safety.

BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232