Published Date 7/15/2022
Very quiet early this morning, stock indexes a little better at 8 am ET.
The probability of a downturn over the next 12 months stands at 47.5%, up sharply from 30% odds in June, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. In March, those odds were just 20%. The latest survey was conducted July 8-14, with 34 economists responding about the chances of recession. Economists slashed estimates for second-quarter growth to a 0.8% annualized rate from a 3% median forecast in last month’s survey. Growth is estimated to be less than 2% in the back half of the year. For 2022, gross domestic product is seen averaging 2.1%, weaker than the 2.6% growth projection from the prior month. In 2023, GDP is seen rising an average 1.3%.
Wells Fargo reported its Mortgage-banking income fell 79% to $287 million as rates surged in the quarter.
At 8:30 am June retail sales expected +0.9% increased 1.0%, May revised from -0.3% to -0.1%. Excluding vehicles +1.0% on estimates of +0.6%; ex vehicles and gas expectations were -0.2% but increased 0.7%. June import prices expected +0.7% increased just 0.2%, yr./yr. +10.7% from 11.6% in May. Export prices increased 0.7% slightly lower than 1.0%, yr./yr. +18.2% from 18.7% in May. July Empire State manufacturing index expected -1.3% increased 11.1%.
China’s economy slowed the most in two years, GDP expanded at a 0.4% annual rate in the April to June period, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast China’s economy to grow 0.9%. China has locked down several cities trying to fend off covid; Shanghai residents confined to their homes for two months and many businesses closed as authorities tried to snuff out a coronavirus outbreak in China’s wealthiest city.
At 9:15 am June industrial production expected +0.1% declined 0.2%, manufacturing expected +0.2% declined 0.5%. Capacity utilization thought to be 80.4% increased just 80.0% down from May’s 80.3%.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +442, NASDAQ +123, S&P +48. 10 yr. note at 9:30 am 2.97% unchanged. FNMA 4.5 30 yr. coupon at 9:30 am -9 bps and +17 bp from 9:30 am yesterday. The 5.0 coupon -11 bps and +24 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 10 am U. of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index, expected at 50.0 from 50.0 in June as released the index increased to 51.1%.
Source: TBWS
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