Published Date 7/21/2022
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: LOWER
Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market worsened by -12 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims increased by 251K which was much higher (worse) than estimates of 240K and was an 8 month high. The more closely watched 4 week moving average moved upward to 240,500. Continuing Claims were also higher than expected (1.384M vs. est. of 1.340M).
Manufacturing: The July Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey cratered into a much lower level than expected (-12.3 vs. est. of 0.0).
Artificial Demand: The Federal Reserve will purchase 30Y GNMA of $493M today, We will get their latest Balance Sheet at 4:30 pm ET today.
Central Banks: The Bank of Japan kept their key interest rate at -0.1%, The European Central Bank increased their interest rate for the first time in 11 years by 50BPS, the market was widely expecting 25BPS. They also announced an Italy specific QE which they are cloaking as TPI.
TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH
This morning markets are seeing money move to safety on the bad jobs report. Volatility is high to start.
BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232
