Published Date 6/16/2022

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: HIGHER
Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +104 bps yesterday. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: HIGHER
Housing: The annualized pace of Housing Starts in May tumbled down to 1.549M from April’s pace of 1.810M, the market was expecting 1.701M. Building Permits fell to 1.695M from 1.823M.

Manufacturing: After Wednesday’s dismal NY Empire Manufacturing Index, we get another weaker than expected report out of the Philly Fed which showed manufacturing contraction with a reading of -3.3 vs. est. of 5.5

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims hit 229K vs. est. of 220K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average ticked up slightly to 218,500. Continuing Claims were 1.312M vs. est. of 1.302M

Central Banks: The Swiss National Bank shocked markets with raising their rates for the first time in 15 years as they moved their rate up 50BPS from -0.75% to -0.25%. They also warned that they may sell of billions in stocks that they hold and that they would not exclude hiking rates further in the near future. The Bank of England increased their interest rate by 25 BPS from 1.00% to 1.25%. Markets did expect this but it was a 6-3 split decision with three voting members (Haskell, Mann and Saunders) wanting a 50BPS hike. The BofE warned of potential larger hikes if inflation continues to move higher.

The Fed: We get their Balance Sheet today at 2:30 pm ET and we will hear from Fed Chair Powell Friday morning.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH
This morning markets are retreating from yesterday’s gains. Volatility is high as negative economic news pressures traders.

BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232