Published Date 7/26/2022
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +8 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Housing: The May FHFA Housing Price Index showed a MOM gain of 1.4% vs. est. of only 1.0%. The May YOY Case Shiller Home Price Index showed an increase of 20.5% vs. est. of 20.6% but that is down from 21.2% in April. June New Home Sales showed an annualized pace of 590K units vs. est. of 660K
The Fed: They started two days of FOMC meetings today that will culminate with their latest interest rate decision and policy statement Wednesday at 2 pm ET followed by a live presser with Fed Chair Powell. They are purchasing $492M of GNMA MBS today.
Manufacturing: July’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was much better than expected, coming in flat at 0.0 vs. expectations of a contraction of -14
Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board’s reading showed a steep contraction for the third straight month as it fell all the way down to 95.7 from 98.4, the market was expecting 96.8
Treasury Sales: We have a 5 year note auction today at 1 pm.
TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: NEUTRAL
This morning markets are treading water ahead of tomorrow FOMC. Volatility is moderate on economic data and FOMC speculation.
BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232
