Published Date 6/21/2022
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -71 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest potential to impact rates this week. 1) The Fed, 2) Foreign News and 3) Inflation
1) The Fed: We have a light week for economic data but a full week for Fed Speak. Fed Chair Powell will give his Congressional testimony on Wednesday and then he will do the “dog and pony show” for the Senate on Thursday. We also hear from several key members this week. The bond market will be focusing on any shift in positions on inflation, rates, and bond purchases.
06/21 Barkin
06/22 Powell, Barkin, Evans, Harker
06/23 Powell, Fed Balance Sheet
06/24 Daly
2) Foreign News: We get the Minutes from all of the major Central Banks’ actions of the past week, the ECB will hold a policy meeting, We also get a huge amount of manufacturing, PPI/CPI, Retail Sales, etc. from European Countries and Great Britain.
3) Inflation: Friday’s UofM Consumer Sentiment Index will get a lot of attention, while it is expected to be very low/weak the markets are really focused on the forward looking consumer inflation expectations.
Treasury Sales: We have a very important 20 year Treasury Bond Auction on Wednesday.
TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: NEUTRAL
This morning markets are mostly treading water. Volatility has started at moderate levels but inflation news later this week will likely make it spike.
BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232
