Published Date 5/17/2022

TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: HIGHER
Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +9 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: HIGHER
Retail Sales: The April data will be released at 8:30 am ET. The headline MOM number is expected to show a gain of 0.7% vs. March’s pace of 0.5%. But when you strip out Autos, the expectations are for only 0.3% which is about 1/3 of March’s pace of 1.1%

Manufacturing: After Monday’s dismal Empire Mfg Index, this will get a lot of attention. The April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data will hit at 9:15 am ET.

Housing: The NAHB Housing Market Index for May will be released at 10 am and is expected to be in 76 range which is a solid reading but well below the highs of last year in the 80s

The Fed: We will hear from Bullard, Harker, Mester and most importantly Powell today. The bond market continues to focus on inflation and the Fed’s warped concept of what a “neutral” rate should be.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH
This morning markets are pulling back from yesterday’s minor gains. Volatility remains high.

BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232