Three things that can impact rates this week

Published Date 9/26/2022


TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY

HOW RATES MOVE:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: HIGHER

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market worsened by -113 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: HIGHER

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Manufacturing and 3) The Fed.

1) Inflation: We get the Fed’s preferred inflation measure on Friday. The problem is that both Core PCE and Headline PCE are expected to move higher in this latest release.

2) Manufacturing: We get a big dose of manufacturing data this week with Durable Goods Orders, Chicago PMI and the Richmond Fed.

3) The Fed: Now that the media blackout is over, we will hear from a slew of Feds this week:

09/26 Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester

09/27 Charles Evans, James Bullard, Mary Daly

09/28 Raphael Bostic, James Bullard, Charles Evans, Jerome Powell

09/29 Loretta Mester, Mary Daly

09/30 Lael Brainard, John Williams

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH

This morning markets are under heavy pressure due to the Bank of England. Volatility has started extremely high and will likely not calm down.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS


All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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