Published Date 9/27/2022
TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -133 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.
TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Manufacturing: August headline Durable Goods Orders were better (less worse) than estimates (-0.2% vs. est. of -0.4%). Ex Transportation, it matched expectations at +0.2%. But Ex Defense it dropped by -0.9% vs. est. of +0.0%. The September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in flat at 0 vs. est. of -1 and a large improvement over August’s reading of -8
Housing: August New Home Sales were much stronger than expected, 685K vs. est. of 500K. However, the July MOM FHFA Housing Price Change showed a drop of -0.6% vs. est. of +0.7%. This is the first negative monthly price change since July 2020. Case Shiller YOY showed an annual gain of 16.1% which was a big drop from June’s pace of 18.7%. This is the first drop in the Case Shiller HPI since 2012 and the contraction of -2.3% between July and August is largest deceleration in history.
Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board’s September reading was much higher than expected hitting a very high 108.0 vs. est. of 104.3.
Treasury Sales: We have a 5 year Treasury note auction at 1 pm ET
The Fed: Today we hear from Charles Evans, James Bullard, Mary Daly
TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH
This morning markets are making a small recovery after yesterdays beating. Volatility remains high with dramatic moves within a narrow trading window.
BOTTOM LINE:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend. JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232