Markets calmer despite international drama

Published Date 10/20/2022


TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY

HOW RATES MOVE:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -57 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL

Housing: September Existing Home Sales came in at 4.710M units on an annualized basis vs. est. of 4.700M

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected (214K vs. est. of 230K). The more closely watched 4 week moving average ticked upward to 212,250. Continuing Claims increased to 1.385M vs. est. of 1.375M

Manufacturing: The October Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was worse than expected, contracting by -8.7 vs. est. of -5.0

Leading Indicators: The Conference Board’s September data hit -0.4% vs. est. of -0.3%

The Fed: Today we will hear from Harker, Jefferson, Cook and Bowman. We also get the Fed’s Balance Sheet this afternoon.

As the World Turns: The soap opera out of Great Britain Continues. Yesterday the Bank of England confirmed that will start their QT (bond sales) on November. Today, their new Prime Minister Truss has resigned just one month after replacing former PM Boris Johnson.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: NEUTRAL

This morning markets have found some stability after the drop yesterday. Volatility is much more muted but has seen some swings on the economic data.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS


All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend.  JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232