Jobs data continues to frustrate central bank

Published Date 9/29/2022


TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY

HOW RATES MOVE:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: HIGHER

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +85 bps yesterday. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: HIGHER

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims continue to be better than expected. This time around they were only 193K vs. est. of 215K. This makes the more closely watched 4 week moving average drop to 207K. Continuing Claims were also lower than expected, 1.347M vs. est. of 1.388M

GDP: The 2nd QTR GDP remained at -0.6%, since it was not revised into the positive territory we officially (after all revisions) have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The Prices Paid component was revised upward from 9.0% to 9.1%

The Fed: We hear from Mester and Day today, we get the Fed’s latest balance sheet at 4:30 pm ET.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH

This morning markets are dropping again. Volatility will remain high as markets remain in turmoil.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS


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