Consumer Price Index sets inflation records for September

Published Date 10/13/2022


TODAY’S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY

HOW RATES MOVE:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: HIGHER

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market worsened by -39 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

TODAY’S RATE FORECAST: HIGHER

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were close to expectations, 228K vs. est. of 225K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average ticked up to 211,500 which is a very low level. Continuing Claims were also inline with expectations, 1.368M vs. est. of 1.365M.

Inflation: September Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the same trend as Wednesday’s PPI by coming in twice as hot as expected. MOM CPI was up 0.4% vs. est. of 0.2% and YOY, it was up 8.2% vs. est. of 8.1%. Core CPI (ex food and energy) increased by 0.6% vs. est. of 0.5% and was up 6.6% vs. est. of 6.5%. Core CPI has NOW SEEN 28 STRAIGHT MONTHS OF GAINS AND IS THE HIGHEST IN 40 YEARS. Shelter inflation 6.59%, up from 6.24% last month and the highest on record. Rent inflation 7.21%, up from 6.74% last month, and the highest on record.

Treasury Sales: We have an important 30 Year Treasury BOND auction today at 1 pm ET.

TODAY’S POTENTIAL RATE VOLATILITY: HIGH

This morning markets are under heavy pressure due to CPI data. Volatility is very high.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.Source: TBWS


All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Not all borrowers qualify for all programs, must meet underwriting guidelines and are subject to credit review and approval. This does not constitute a commitment to lend.  JC Financial Solutions, Inc is an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS 365033, CABRE 01445232